{
  "format": "t2k.cash-homebuyer-mmm.v1",
  "mode": "fitted_synthetic",
  "synthetic": true,
  "title": "Paid media and qualified seller opportunities",
  "label": "Meridian fitted to synthetic data \u00b7 no customer or economic validation",
  "engine": {
    "name": "Google Meridian",
    "version": "2.0.0"
  },
  "outcome": "qualified_opportunities",
  "outcomeLabel": "Qualified seller-property opportunities",
  "outcomeDefinition": "Newly qualified unique seller-property opportunities, counted once in their qualification week; entirely generated counts.",
  "period": {
    "start": "2023-01-02",
    "end": "2025-12-22",
    "weeks": 156,
    "grain": "week \u00d7 fictional market",
    "historyStart": "2022-11-07",
    "historyWeeks": 8,
    "markets": [
      "cedar",
      "harbor",
      "mesa",
      "willow"
    ]
  },
  "units": {
    "spend": "USD",
    "incremental": "qualified opportunities over the 156-week modeled window",
    "marginal": "additional qualified opportunities per additional USD 1,000 at historical spend and fixed exposure costs",
    "costPerIncremental": "USD per incremental qualified opportunity"
  },
  "currency": "USD",
  "observedOutcome": 19940,
  "channels": [
    {
      "id": "direct_mail",
      "label": "Direct mail",
      "spend": 1335902.0,
      "exposureUnit": "mailed_pieces",
      "incremental": {
        "mean": 5969.7081,
        "lower": 4020.9344,
        "upper": 8846.6579
      },
      "marginal": {
        "mean": 2.1595,
        "lower": 1.6542,
        "upper": 2.6595
      },
      "costPerIncremental": {
        "mean": 237.1731,
        "lower": 151.0064,
        "upper": 332.2367
      },
      "intervalLabel": "90% posterior credible interval; conditional on this synthetic model"
    },
    {
      "id": "paid_search",
      "label": "Paid search",
      "spend": 1059255.0,
      "exposureUnit": "clicks",
      "incremental": {
        "mean": 5365.9275,
        "lower": 2982.9674,
        "upper": 9934.7821
      },
      "marginal": {
        "mean": 1.8542,
        "lower": 1.3605,
        "upper": 2.3456
      },
      "costPerIncremental": {
        "mean": 225.5631,
        "lower": 106.6209,
        "upper": 355.1013
      },
      "intervalLabel": "90% posterior credible interval; conditional on this synthetic model"
    },
    {
      "id": "paid_social",
      "label": "Paid social",
      "spend": 566041.09,
      "exposureUnit": "impressions",
      "incremental": {
        "mean": 3142.8464,
        "lower": 1461.7677,
        "upper": 6137.3596
      },
      "marginal": {
        "mean": 2.3051,
        "lower": 1.356,
        "upper": 3.254
      },
      "costPerIncremental": {
        "mean": 217.1256,
        "lower": 92.2288,
        "upper": 387.2306
      },
      "intervalLabel": "90% posterior credible interval; conditional on this synthetic model"
    }
  ],
  "baseline": {
    "mean": 5462.6777,
    "lower": -139.5522,
    "upper": 9527.5028,
    "label": "Model baseline, including unseparated organic/referral activity",
    "intervalLabel": "90% posterior credible interval"
  },
  "coverage": {
    "modeledPaidChannels": [
      "direct_mail",
      "paid_search",
      "paid_social"
    ],
    "notSeparatelyEstimated": [
      "organic_search",
      "referral"
    ],
    "modelRows": 624,
    "historyRows": 32,
    "missingModelRows": 0,
    "scope": "Synthetic aggregate fixture; individual showcase journeys are a separate narrative sample."
  },
  "acquisitions": {
    "status": "insufficient_data",
    "observed": 50,
    "zeroMarketWeeks": 575,
    "totalMarketWeeks": 624,
    "reason": "Independent sparse synthetic closing counts are a readiness illustration, not a joined downstream funnel. No acquisition model or downstream profit model was fitted."
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "status": "review_required",
    "samplingStatus": "sampling_checks_passed",
    "maxRhat": 1.006833,
    "minBulkEss": 664.878729,
    "divergences": 0,
    "drawsPerChain": 500,
    "chains": 4,
    "holdoutEvaluated": false,
    "causalValidated": false,
    "negativeBaselineProbability": 0.053,
    "issues": [
      "The model baseline's 90% interval crosses below zero. Review priors and model specification before interpreting absolute contribution or considering optimization."
    ],
    "fixedParameterDiagnosticsExcluded": [
      "slope_m[direct_mail]",
      "slope_m[paid_search]",
      "slope_m[paid_social]",
      "tau_g[harbor]"
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": [],
  "scenarioStatus": "not_computed",
  "limitations": [
    "All data is generated. Fitting it does not validate real-world marketing effectiveness or economic viability.",
    "Intervals describe parameter uncertainty conditional on model assumptions; they do not include every source of business uncertainty.",
    "No randomized experiment, holdout evaluation, real-data validation or budget optimization was performed.",
    "Incremental outcomes compare historical media with channel exposure set to zero, including media carryover. They are not individual-deal credit.",
    "Marginal estimates use a 1% spend perturbation and fixed exposure costs; they are not a forecast or a spending recommendation.",
    "Qualified opportunities are not acquisitions, resale revenue or realized profit.",
    "SEO and referrals are not separately identified; baseline is not an estimate of either channel's causal effect.",
    "Capital, offer policy and renovation capacity still constrain any real plan. No budget changes are executed.",
    "The model baseline's 90% interval crosses below zero. Review priors and model specification before interpreting absolute contribution or considering optimization."
  ],
  "artifacts": {
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    "generatorSha256": "514bb8d8bef80d384403b0a65edfa7dfee2332b0ff46aa4e7e638f0c3cc28f08",
    "fitScriptSha256": "db9fc22087a78fdeb9fba3d2accc512b9ef49f65e835ab943f54206a76cb8f53",
    "dependencyLockSha256": "f27d6aa038faa7bad4b5b0f05610997f4a359f00d5fc7075a89d30dcfcc110d2",
    "posteriorSha256": "c928cd9a18fb0d5faaa77cedf8af0741001741e10be9ed9992c3a56d3b9733d6",
    "summaryDrawsSha256": "aaac76ce1a8e3fafdd61a5c290e7f91ced342747e2a228cae2b39ca8ba86f83e",
    "sourceDirectory": "scripts/cash-homebuyer/mmm",
    "posteriorPublic": false
  }
}