T2K in practice / Real estate marketing

From postcard
to property
purchase.

A postcard, a search, a phone call. One property acquisition. Which marketing deserves credit—and what supports the next budget?

Follow the evidence

Interactive showcase · Fictional operator · Synthetic data

The case study

Cash homebuyer marketing attribution with MTA and MMM

A fictional regional operator buys houses from homeowners, renovates them, and resells them. T2K connects the evidence needed to review a practical question: should the next marketing budget move money from direct mail to paid search?

Which sources receive credit?
Multi-touch attribution (MTA) assigns credit to one qualified seller-property opportunity. Compare first touch, last touch, and equal credit across distinct eligible channels. Recorded clicks, mapped calls, and reviewed seller reports keep their different meanings.
What might marketing change?
Marketing mix modeling (MMM) estimates incremental qualified opportunities under a model. An actual Google Meridian fit uses synthetic weekly data for direct mail, paid search, and paid social, with uncertainty and a visible model review requirement.
Can the operator act?
Three authored $90,000 monthly budget mixes test channel bounds, purchase capital, assessment slots, and renovation capacity. These are planning examples with no model forecast or authority to change advertising spend.

A transparent demonstration. MTA calculations use a synthetic event ledger. Google Meridian is fitted to generated weekly data; a model diagnostic requires review. These are synthetic examples, not real performance results. Budget mixes are authored examples, not optimized recommendations; the final view checks their bounds and operating capacity without changing advertising spend.

Read the guide

01 / Explain this acquisition

Same journey.
Different credit.

Multi-touch attribution (MTA) assigns credit under a declared policy. Change the evidence and see what still supports the answer.

Choose an evidence scenario

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Loading the public measurement bundle…

Evidence timelineLoading

One seller-property opportunity.

Each event keeps its date, source, and evidentiary meaning.

Reporting snapshot

The selected snapshot determines which records were available.

  1. The event ledger will appear here.
Why some records do not receive credit
  • Dispatch is not evidence a postcard was seen. Repeated calls are not additional acquisitions.
Assigned creditDeterministic MTA

Make the rule visible.

Attribution settings

Eligible interactions are evaluated against the selected policy and reporting cutoff.

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Credit explains an allocation. It does not establish causal lift.

What actually happened?

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Purchase capital, projected profit, and realized contribution remain separate.

Inspect the acquisition calculation and Core receipt

Source identifiers, exclusions, the cutoff, and the policy accompany each result. The application calculates attribution fractions. The separate Core receipt records the eligible evidence query.

Application measurement result

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Unmodified Core execution receipt

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Open the complete synthetic measurement bundle (JSON)

02 / Assess channel investment

Credit tells one story.
Incrementality asks another.

Marketing mix modeling (MMM) estimates outcomes that would change with marketing investment. That is a different question from assigning credit to this property.

Meridian fit · Synthetic data

What supports channel investment?

MMM outcome

The first useful outcome is newly qualified seller-property opportunities. Completed acquisitions require their own data sufficiency assessment.

Synthetic channel estimates and uncertainty
ChannelSpendIncremental outcomesCost per incremental outcome

A common outcome, period, geography, and channel definition are necessary before results can be compared.

This synthetic fit requires model review. It does not validate real-world marketing effectiveness or a spending recommendation.

Inspect model assumptions and limitations
    Open the synthetic MMM artifact (JSON)

    03 / Review the next decision

    A budget needs
    more than a winner.

    Bring attribution, model uncertainty, and operating limits into one review. Acquisition capital and assessment capacity matter alongside channel performance.

    Try a bounded budget proposal

    Change the mix. Keep context.

    Budget proposal settings

    Compare an authored monthly spending mix with channel bounds, acquisition capital, assessments, and renovation capacity. These are planning assumptions, not model forecasts.

    No campaign is updated. The result records what still needs review.

    T2K decision contextLoading

    Evidence before action.

    The selected spending mix, measurement evidence, and operating constraints will appear here.

      The selected MMM outcome also determines what model evidence is available.

      Advertising changes: not authorized

      Inspect the capacity and measurement review inputs

      These review inputs preserve the selected journey, model mode and readiness, operating constraints, and lack of spending authority. This is a showcase review, not a production authorization record.

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      Methods and limits

      What this case study establishes

      The data, calculations, and limitations are available for inspection. This is a technical demonstration of T2K, not a customer performance claim.

      How do MTA and MMM work together?

      MTA explains an allocation of credit; MMM estimates incremental effects conditional on a model. T2K Core records the evidence eligibility query, while application code calculates credit, economics, and capacity. The 2026 property journey and the aggregate MMM dataset—156 weeks from 2023 to 2025 across four fictional markets—are separate examples, not a joined customer funnel.

      Why does the fitted model still require review?

      Meridian’s sampling checks pass, but its 90% baseline interval crosses below zero and 5.3% of retained draws have a negative aggregate baseline. The model status is review_required. No holdout evaluation or experiment calibration was performed. The sparse acquisition series is insufficient_data; no acquisition or profit model was fitted.

      Does the case study recommend a budget?

      No. The budget mixes are human-authored scenarios, with no future forecast or budget optimization. Passing channel and capacity checks does not resolve model uncertainty or authorize spending. Purchase capital also excludes renovation, holding, and marketing funding, which require separate review.

      Inspect the full methodology and reproduction guide and model artifact. The implementation uses Google’s Meridian data requirements and model execution documentation.

      What T2K brings together

      An answer you can
      follow back to its sources.

      The same structure can connect a seller journey, a measurement model, and a reviewed business decision. Every result keeps its meaning and its limitations.

      Build with T2K